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Integration and forecasting of wind power in the Mexican electric power system.
Wind power is undergoing the fastest rate of growth of any form of electricity generation in the world. In 2005, Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE, network operator in Mexico) initiated the construction of the first large scale wind farm in Mexico (83 MW). The wind farm began its operation at the beginning of 2007. Additionally, the Mexico’s energy ministry (SENER) has programmed the construction of other 507 MW of wind power capacity in the same region in the next years, hopping to have installed 592 MW in 2010. The Mexico’s Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) has authorized several self-supplying projects using wind power technology. They will contribute 1924 MW to the Mexican Electrical System in the year 2010.
These capacity additions of wind generation have produced an interest of CFE to have some tools that help to integrate in a reliable way these wind power units. An important tool for this task is a short-term wind power forecasting system.
The IIE (Mexican Electric Power Research Institute) has initiated the development of a system prototype for short-term wind power forecasting. The prototype is based on a combination of several statistical forecasting models. A similar scheme to the Sipreólico model is considered, where linear regression and nonparametric models are considered and the number of forecastings and their weights are time variables. The prototype uses the output data of the MM5 model and historic databases. In this paper some results are presented and analyzed of the system application.