Chris, as I see things, you need to decide if you will use 3-phase or not before you decide on your electrical feed, unless you don't mind duplicating your efforts later on if you decide to go with 3-phase. If you think you will, I'd go ahead and do 2 service entrances now. Having to dig that trench twice does not sound fun. Even if it has to be in 2 different ones, doing it with one machine rental would be advantageous.
I'm thinking 200 would be ok if you stay with single phase, and you indeed only use 1 or 2 tools plus the cyclone at a time. This is where I'm coming from.... I have a 20 X 24 shop, with a side room that is 12 X 14 for finish and assembly work. I have a 200 amp box. I wanted something with enough slots to separate my runs to different equipment. I have 8 30 amp 220 runs, plus 6 20 amp 110 runs. I'll never have that much stuff going at once. But the 5 HP cyclone, 2.5 HP BS and the future hopefully 5 HP air compressor, could conceiveably all be on at one time, plus 2 light circuits, and hopefully the TS will be 3 to 5 HP when I get to get a cabinet saw. Right now I have 8 single slots left, and I plan on using 2 of them to run power over to my storage building. If I put my future air compressor over there, which I'm thinking more and more about doing, then that will free up 2 slots I have wired now. Not all of my 220 volt circuits have something set to plug into them at this point. I have one for a PTAC unit for the finishing room to let it double as a dog quarantine room in the future (it's the only way I convinced SWMBO to let me enclose the covered patio!!), one for a welder, one for the TS that is wired 110 right now, 1 for the DP that will probably stay 110, and 1 for the future jointer. I have 2 dedicated lighting circuits, and 4 110 outlet circuits, which also run lights in the finish/assembly/quarantine room. There may only be one place in the shop where adjacent outlets are on the same circuit, and that is at the bench where I have 5 duplex outlets available. this allowed me to use the 15 amp outlets instead of the 20s that Marty is using.
Hope this helps you in your decision making. Is it overkill? Yeah, probably so for a hobby shop. But my motto , as others have stated, plan for the upper end of what you will be using. Jim.
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