corona virus comment

[Darren Wright]

It kind of surprises me that the statistic sites leave out so much information. I took some of the data from covidtracking.com and added a few columns at the end to see what the percentages by day of positives results and deaths were, they seem to be slowly decreasing at least. Still way to high, but at least there seems to be some good outcome all the sheltering

Totals for the US

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.

covidtracking.com

Date	States Tracked	New Tests	Positive	Negative	Pos + Neg	Pending	Deaths	Total Tests	Positive Increase	Positive Increase Percent	Deth Increase	Death Increase Percent
Mon Apr 20 2020	56	137,687	772,524	3,231,027	4,003,551	4,037	37,321	4,003,551	23,321​	3.02%​	1,528​	4.09%​
Sun Apr 19 2020	56	167,330	749,203	3,116,661	3,865,864	11,324	35,793	3,865,864	27,021​	3.61%​	1,654​	4.62%​
Sat Apr 18 2020	56	141,041	722,182	2,976,352	3,698,534	9,906	34,139	3,698,534	27,662​	3.83%​	1,774​	5.20%​
Fri Apr 17 2020	56	156,429	694,520	2,862,973	3,557,493	10,889	32,365	3,557,493	31,260​	4.50%​	2,069​	6.39%​
Thu Apr 16 2020	56	158,309	663,260	2,737,804	3,401,064	16,927	30,296	3,401,064	30,604​	4.61%​	2,136​	7.05%​
Wed Apr 15 2020	56	161,135	632,656	2,610,099	3,242,755	16,901	28,160	3,242,755	30,183​	4.77%​	2,492​	8.85%​
Tue Apr 14 2020	56	146,614	602,473	2,479,147	3,081,620	16,615	25,668	3,081,620	25,699​	4.27%​	2,299​	8.96%​
Mon Apr 13 2020	56	129,114	576,774	2,358,232	2,935,006	17,159	23,369	2,935,006	24,948​	4.33%​	1,450​	6.20%​
Sun Apr 12 2020	56	140,226	551,826	2,254,066	2,805,892	16,419	21,919	2,805,892	28,983​	5.25%​	1,496​	6.83%​
Sat Apr 11 2020	56	136,451	522,843	2,142,823	2,665,666	16,593	20,423	2,665,666	29,658​	5.67%​	1,935​	9.47%​
Fri Apr 10 2020	56	153,860	493,185	2,036,030	2,529,215	17,435	18,488	2,529,215	34,550​	7.01%​	2,064​	11.16%​
Thu Apr 9 2020	56	162,789	458,635	1,916,720	2,375,355	17,622	16,424	2,375,355	34,346​	7.49%​	1,877​	11.43%​
Wed Apr 8 2020	56	139,536	424,289	1,788,277	2,212,566	17,219	14,547	2,212,566	30,133​	7.10%​	1,901​	13.07%​
Tue Apr 7 2020	56	148,099	394,156	1,678,874	2,073,030	16,548	12,646	2,073,030	30,437​	7.72%​	1,926​	15.23%​
Mon Apr 6 2020	56	149,248	363,719	1,561,212	1,924,931	17,283	10,720	1,924,931	28,752​	7.91%​	1,166​	10.88%​

 

[Don Baer]

ummm when did we add 6 more states to the union...

 

[Darren Wright]

ummm when did we add 6 more states to the union...

I believe that is the 5 US territories and DC

 

[Dan Noren]

i like my stats better. based on latest info on populations, and percentage of populations. minnesota: cases - .0438%, deaths - .0025%, usa: cases - .24%, deaths - .0129%, world - cases: .0321%, deaths - .0022%
now those are all percentages of populations. now tell me again, why i should be in a panic about this?

 

[Bill Arnold]

wouldn't do you any good you couldn't get delivery on a printer for an indeterminate period of time.

Amazon has models that can be delivered anywhere from this Friday through next week.

 

[Don Baer]

Amazon has models that can be delivered anywhere from this Friday through next week.

Bill sorry that was satirical after the problem I have been having getting parts.
.

 

[Steve Southwood]

My stats are the worse of all.

Out of popular and soft maple. Can't source local. Next project is all roughed out, Cherry, it will be painted on the exterior.

I call this my Shaker period. I'm going to use this in my favor and try out a couple ideas.

 

[Ryan Mooney]

world - cases: .0321%, deaths - .0022%
now those are all percentages of populations. now tell me again, why i should be in a panic about this?

Well hopefully your data is wrong because it shows a 5.5-7% death rate

So lets take the 0.0321% world doing naive doubling that's 11 iterations to get to 65% of the population.. If we assume a doubling of cases every 10 days (way longer than any place that's had free range indicates so far), we'd be there in 110 days, if we use the more aggressive 2.5 days some people are calculating that's only 27 days, So likely somewhere in between the two. I picked 65% because it's the ballpark estimate of where we hit sufficient herd immunity to have things.

I happen to believe that your numbers are overly pessimistic on the death rates. and low on the infection rate.. but since one drives the other and we literally don't have the data to accurately know the actual infection rates (some rather breathless recent press releases to the contrary) most of that is based on a lot of inference. We'll likely know more in about a month.

The exponential doubling isn't generally obvious to most folks. I like the analogy of the lily pads and the pond. There is an old riddle about a lily pad in a pond. The lily pad doubles in size every day and after 30 days it completely covers the pond. On what day does the lily pad cover half the pond? Most people answer “day 15” without thinking about it to much. However on day 15 the lily pad will only have covered .0031% (3 thousandths of one percent) of the pond on day 15, and doesn't cover half the pond until day 29. You don't get to even 1% of the pond until sometime around day 24. Now infections like this aren't simple doubling, they tend to move in fits and starts, and there's good evidence that some people are much more infectious than others.. but taken over the whole.. unconstrained spread appears to be doubling somewhere between 25 and 6 days.

 

[Dan Noren]

the numbers that i used, are the latest reported numbers for minnesota, usa, and worldwide. but when you compare the numbers of cases and deaths, and compare them to the population, they are quite small.

 

[Ryan Mooney]

but when you compare the numbers of cases and deaths, and compare them to the population, they are quite small.

Only if you ignore the probable unchecked rate of growth.

 

[Darren Wright]

Sorry fellas, wasn't trying to panic anyone, quite the opposite. I'm sure some of you are feeling frustrated by all that is going on, but just wanted to show that the effort all have put in seems to be helping.

 

[Jonathan Shively]

First and foremost, I am so proud to be a part of this group of people dealing with this in an adult like manner. I actually have left one forum for the lack of adult behavior (it was never family friendly) but the whining and complaining. Regardless the stats, no one is screaming becoming a slave, etc. Thank you all for your adult like manners, discussions, behaviors and sharing of projects.

 

[Jonathan Shively]

Larry, I wonder if you could share this with your doctor friend and get his reaction. https://banned.video/watch?id=5eb317df322e03001635430a
Watch to the end.

 

[Darren Wright]

Things are starting to open up around here a bit. The medical institute that I work at is still planning it's ramp up of research again, but have already been told that if we can work from home, we'll continue to do so for several more months.

Since we have the know how and equipment, we'll be doing volunteer testing of associates to A) see if you may have the virus. B) If you may have the antibodies. Keep in mind that since we're doing research samples are done via a 3rd party service and groups of data are reported as either positive/negative So lets say the well plate has 384 tests in it, if one of the 384 tests positive, all 384 in the group are notified by the 3rd party to go get a test by their doctor to confirm. The researchers have no personal information of the testers, it's mostly to determine the prevalence of virus in the community, same for antibodies.

Also keep in mind that just because you have antibodies doesn't mean you won't be susceptible to another mutation of the virus.

 

[Robert Horky]

Jonathan, about that video link. Here is what the AAAS has to say about it:
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Science Journal
“Mikovits also accuses Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a prominent member of the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, of being responsible for the deaths of millions during the early years of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. The video claims Mikovits was part of the team that discovered HIV, revolutionized HIV treatment, and was jailed without charges for her scientific positions. Science fact-checked the video. None of these claims are true. The video is an excerpt from a forthcoming movie Plandemic, which promises to “expose the scientific and political elite who run the scam that is our global health system.”

Not real sure who all we should be believing these days.

 

[Dan Noren]

It kind of surprises me that the statistic sites leave out so much information. I took some of the data from covidtracking.com and added a few columns at the end to see what the percentages by day of positives results and deaths were, they seem to be slowly decreasing at least. Still way to high, but at least there seems to be some good outcome all the sheltering

Totals for the US

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.

covidtracking.com

Date	States Tracked	New Tests	Positive	Negative	Pos + Neg	Pending	Deaths	Total Tests	Positive Increase	Positive Increase Percent	Deth Increase	Death Increase Percent
Mon Apr 20 2020	56	137,687	772,524	3,231,027	4,003,551	4,037	37,321	4,003,551	23,321​	3.02%​	1,528​	4.09%​
Sun Apr 19 2020	56	167,330	749,203	3,116,661	3,865,864	11,324	35,793	3,865,864	27,021​	3.61%​	1,654​	4.62%​
Sat Apr 18 2020	56	141,041	722,182	2,976,352	3,698,534	9,906	34,139	3,698,534	27,662​	3.83%​	1,774​	5.20%​
Fri Apr 17 2020	56	156,429	694,520	2,862,973	3,557,493	10,889	32,365	3,557,493	31,260​	4.50%​	2,069​	6.39%​
Thu Apr 16 2020	56	158,309	663,260	2,737,804	3,401,064	16,927	30,296	3,401,064	30,604​	4.61%​	2,136​	7.05%​
Wed Apr 15 2020	56	161,135	632,656	2,610,099	3,242,755	16,901	28,160	3,242,755	30,183​	4.77%​	2,492​	8.85%​
Tue Apr 14 2020	56	146,614	602,473	2,479,147	3,081,620	16,615	25,668	3,081,620	25,699​	4.27%​	2,299​	8.96%​
Mon Apr 13 2020	56	129,114	576,774	2,358,232	2,935,006	17,159	23,369	2,935,006	24,948​	4.33%​	1,450​	6.20%​
Sun Apr 12 2020	56	140,226	551,826	2,254,066	2,805,892	16,419	21,919	2,805,892	28,983​	5.25%​	1,496​	6.83%​
Sat Apr 11 2020	56	136,451	522,843	2,142,823	2,665,666	16,593	20,423	2,665,666	29,658​	5.67%​	1,935​	9.47%​
Fri Apr 10 2020	56	153,860	493,185	2,036,030	2,529,215	17,435	18,488	2,529,215	34,550​	7.01%​	2,064​	11.16%​
Thu Apr 9 2020	56	162,789	458,635	1,916,720	2,375,355	17,622	16,424	2,375,355	34,346​	7.49%​	1,877​	11.43%​
Wed Apr 8 2020	56	139,536	424,289	1,788,277	2,212,566	17,219	14,547	2,212,566	30,133​	7.10%​	1,901​	13.07%​
Tue Apr 7 2020	56	148,099	394,156	1,678,874	2,073,030	16,548	12,646	2,073,030	30,437​	7.72%​	1,926​	15.23%​
Mon Apr 6 2020	56	149,248	363,719	1,561,212	1,924,931	17,283	10,720	1,924,931	28,752​	7.91%​	1,166​	10.88%​

one good thing about data, it is only as valid as the day it is collected. same goes with testing. its like taking a photograph of something that is moving. does a moving ferris wheel stop, or runners stop, because you have taken their pictures? if we were to test the entire state of minnesota at the same time, by the time you finish that last test, your results are invalid, because everyone tested has had the temerity to go about their lives, and the data has changed. one good thing about a table like this, is that it shows what happened, not what will happen tomorrow. then again, there are decreases shown as increases, check out apr 6-7, things go down from the 7th, but are listed as increases (there is no column for decreases).