I called a couple of HVAC contractors today to get quotes and left messages. One called back and was talking to him about the time the other showed up to check out our project, luckily they didn't both show up at the same time. The one that called is going to try and make it by tomorrow. I am looking at forced air unit, 90% or better.
The first one quoted me a 95% efficient, 60,000 btu furnace and 1.5 ton AC unit, running new gas line to the propane tank. The whole time he was kicking mini-splits to the ground and how crappy they were, and that he wouldn't service them. I also asked him to quote a water heater, 40 gallon.
His quotes were $12,500 for the furnace and gas line, and $1,600 for the water heater.
Now I'm not an expert, but I can get the furnace, A-coil, and 1.5 ton AC for about $3500. He's putting it on a metal box for the return, sticking a single 6' trunk on it that will go up into the attic and have 4 to 5 flex lines running to the register boxes. The gas line is a poly material and runs about like pex does, so easy peasy. I don't see where he's coming up with this price. I'm thinking $5,000 - $7,000 max.
Next the water tank is just a basic gas/propane 40 gallon tank, probably $250 - $400, some pipe to run and vent to the roof and connect to the same gas line as the furnace. Again, maybe $600 - $700 max.
We'll see what the quotes from the guy tomorrow will be.
At this point I've been reviewing mini-splits and looking at about $1,600 for two and probably a circulation fan setup for the bathroom (besides it's exhaust fan), just to keep the temps balanced. If I can find a small air handler with a filter for circulating air between all the rooms, I may only do one mini-split for the overall size of the cabin.